3 days ago
Ray Thomas's best bets, quaddie picks and inside mail for Randwick-Kensington on Wednesday
Form analyst Ray Thomas presents his best bets, quaddie picks and inside mail for the eight-race card on Randwick's Kensington track on Wednesday.
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KENSINGTON TIPS
BEST BET
Race 4 No.1 AXIUS: Promising four-year-old who comes out of a competitive Saturday grade effort to a winnable Kensington midweek race.
NEXT BEST
Race 6 No.2 BAT OUT OF HELL: Bursting to win a race after three successive minor placings including a close second at Canterbury last week.
VALUE BET
Race 2 No.6 OUTER BANKS: He stalked the leaders and finished powerfully to win a recent barrier trial at Warwick Farm impressively.
LAY OF THE DAY
Race 6 No.10 BARBRAY: Even with the J-Mac tax factored in, $4.80 in early markets seems very short for this gelding who is likely to be back in the ruck on a heavy track.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 1,2,6,8
Race 6: 1,2,8,10
Race 7: 5,12,13,16
Race 8: 1,3,4
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Braith Nock, Sydney's reigning champion apprentice, has six very good chances including Axius, Autumn Dream and Harry's Bar.
TRAINER TO FOLLOW Ciaron Maher has winning hopes in four races including a quartet for the Premier's Cup Prelude – Interpretation, Glory Daze, Royal Supremacy and Cosmic Vega.
CANTIAMO (3) was heavily backed into favouritism on debut for the Inglis Nursery last summer when she was slow to begin, showed speed to race through and lead into the straight before tiring late for fifth behind Within The Law. Cantiamo hasn't raced since but has looked impressive at the trials, particularly her Gosford heat win late last month when she stalked the leaders then raced clear in the straight. ARTISTIC VENTURE (1) and AUTUMN BLONDE (2) are resuming after showing promise last season including finishing just behind the placegetters in a blanket finish to the Sweet Embrace Stakes. Both are trialling well. NULLARBOR JANE (9) has race fitness on her side, drawn well and has no weight.
BET: CANTIAMO (3) to win.
I'm going a little wide here with OUTER BANKS (6) in a tough race. The Peter Snowden-trained gelding was in the market at his only start back in April when he was trapped three-wide without cover and dropped out of contention behind Aerodrome at Warwick Farm. Outer Banks resumes off two smart trials, the most recent when he came from off speed and finished strongly between runners to win an 812 heat at Warwick Farm. Drawn awkwardly and will need luck in running but he's good value at double figure odds. BANKNOTE HUSTLER (3) has drawn wide but monstered his rivals in a recent trial win. SANCTIFIED (1) was stakes placed last season and will be charging home. PORTOFINO (7) could be a big improver.
BET: OUTER BANKS (6) each way, box trifecta 1,3,6,7.
AUTUMN DREAM (2) romped home third-up at Kembla then stayed at 1600m, struck a wet track, but kept working to the line when fourth at Warwick Farm two weeks ago. The step up to 1800m suits and she's very fit. STING IN THE TAIL (6) went back slightly in trip at Canterbury last week and was outsprinted from the turn before finishing sixth to Seven's. He's on the seven-day back-up and is getting out to his right distance range. TAZIMA (1) has been improved by two runs from a spell and the form out of his last start second has been franked. SUNSET PARK (3) is fitter and will appreciate getting out to 1800m.
BET: AUTUMN DREAM (2) to win, saver on Sting In The Tail at odds.
AXIUS (1) resumed with a strong win over 1100m here then had excuses when fourth to Yoshinobu at Rosehill. Promising four-year-old who is back in midweek grade and looks placed to advantage after the claim. THE REPLICANT (7) is racing well and comes off a tough win in heavy going at Warwick Farm. JOHNNY THE KID (5) races well fresh while VICTORY LANE (4) handles wet conditions.
BET: AXIUS (1) to win.
PASSEGGIATA (6) is having her first start for the new stable as she tries to snap a losing streak that stretches more than two years. Speedy mare who handles heavy going, she has looked particularly sharp in two recent Rosehill barrier trial wins. She will be in front for a long way. IRON WILL (2) is another who goes well in heavy conditions and comes off a solid Warwick Farm effort two weeks ago. ARE EE QUE (8) is in very good form and has won four of his five starts on heavy tracks. CAVALLO RAMPANTE (1) is a smart mare and a specialist 1000m sprinter.
BET: PASSEGGIATA (6) to win.
BAT OUT OF HELL (2) was given the run of the race last week and had his chance when narrowly beaten by the handy Seven's at Canterbury. Bat Out Of Hell is on the back up, he's been placed at his last three starts and is bursting to win a race. This is his chance. NARBOLD (8) comes off a good second to Amusing in Saturday grade, is also working up to a win and handles heavy tracks well. BARBRAY (10) ran well when fourth behind Amusing and Narbold last start and rates highly. CRISTAL CLEAR (1) was competitive when resuming and he did win second-up last time in work.
BET: BAT OUT OF HELL (2) to win, box trifecta 1,2,8,10,
I'm keen on SALTCOATS (16). He has been improved by two runs from a spell and his effort to close late for third at Listed Level in the Winter Challenge last start is a great pointer for this race. He's getting out to his right distance range and he did win over 1800m when last in work, plus he handles heavy tracks. ESTADIO MESTALLA (5) is very fit, racing well and will get through the wet conditions. ROYAL SUPREMACY (13) was big odds when he won over this course and distance last start but looks an improving type. GLORY DAZE (12) hasn't raced for six weeks but was placed in successive stakes races at 2000m.
Tough closer but there was a lot to like about LA ROJA (3) 's effort to run on from back in the field for second to Metaphorically at Canterbury. The Replicant ran third and has since won to frank the form. La Roja is promising, drawn well and is well placed back in fillies and mares grade. HARRY'S BAR (1) was impressive winning in Saturday class and will be hard to beat again. LADY BOSS (4) will run her usual competitive race. SAMARELLE (12) was very strong late to win on debut at Newcastle and looks to have a future.
